Things are quieting down as we move into the Thanksgiving holiday.

This is a great time for reflection as we all have a lot to be thankful for. It is also a time to look back to see how far we have come, as well as a look at what the future may bring. Regarding the future, the economic predictions for 2019 are already starting to roll in and we will spend some time reviewing these in the coming weeks. As we look back at how far we have come, it is interesting to note that the stronger economy and weaker real estate market we are now experiencing did not arrive overnight. 

Today’s economy and real estate market are a product of a long and slow recovery from a very deep recession. For example, our economic growth has exceeded 2.0% six out of nine years since the recession and has never dropped below 1.5% during that time. It looks like this year will top 3.0% for the first time in over ten years--but that is not indicative of an overheated economy. Likewise, if you look at existing home sales, they have risen steadily since the recession from a low of just over four million to a high of just over 5.5 million. They have hovered between 5.25 and 5.6 million for the past five years. The small drop in housing sales will keep them towards the high end of that range. Certainly not a sign of a major slump. 

Now that the economic recovery has matured, we don't think that we can expect significant spikes in growth and that is probably a good thing, because that would cause rates to continue to rise significantly. The spikes we have had in the past years were due to temporary stimuli such as housing tax credits for first time buyers and the more recent tax cut. But we can't do that every year with our budget deficit so high. So, let's be thankful for the steady recovery we have and be hopeful that it continues for a few more years.