Refi Volume Set to Spike

June 2, 2020
Refinances Spike
According to forecasts, lenders will originate $1.5 trillion in refis in 2020, a 51% jump from 2019.

 

Fasten your seatbelts. Refinance volume is set to spike to a 17-year high this year as rates on home loans fall to the lowest levels ever recorded, Fannie Mae said. Even as other parts of the economy tank, lenders will originate $1.5 trillion in refis in 2020, a 51% jump from 2019, according to the forecast. That would be the highest level since 2003 when $2.5 trillion of residential loans were refinanced, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The lowest interest rates on record will bolster refis after the Federal Reserve began buying mortgage-backed securities to stimulate bond demand and grease the wheels of the credit markets. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed loan fell to an all-time low of 3.23% at the end of April, according to Freddie Mac. It’s probably heading even lower, according to the Fannie Mae forecast. The average rate probably will be 3.2% in the second quarter, down from 3.5% in the first quarter, and drop for the rest of the year. In the third quarter, it probably will be 3.1% and in the fourth quarter, it probably will average 3%. In 2021’s first quarter, the average probably will dip to 2.9%, Fannie Mae said. The share of originations that will be refinancings likely will jump to 58% this year from 44% in 2019, Fannie Mae said. That puts the market into “boom” territory – when more than 50% of originations are for refinancings. The last time the refi share was that high was in 2012, when 71% of originations were for refinancings, according to MBA data.

Source: HousingWire